Jak vnést revoluci do arabských ekonomik

ISTANBUL – Pokračující souboj mezi islamisty a vojenskými vládci v Egyptě nám jasně připomíná, jak obtížné budou zřejmě přechody na demokracii v arabském světě. Neschopnost dosáhnout dohody o sdílení moci očividně prodlouží politickou nestabilitu. Výsledná ekonomická nečinnost však bude pro konsolidaci demokratického vládnutí neméně ničivá.

Nastupující arabští vůdci, od islamistů až po „recyklované“ představitele bývalého režimu, si palčivě uvědomují potřebu zlepšit hospodářské vyhlídky svých zemí. Dobře vědí, že popularitu si dokážou udržet pouze v případě, že se jim podaří zajistit růst, zaměstnanost a vyšší životní úroveň. To by byl obtížný úkol za jakýchkoliv okolností – a na pozadí destabilizace hospodářských systémů po celém Blízkém východě a severní Africe v důsledku arabského jara bude tento úkol ještě náročnější.

Dokonce i v zemích, jako jsou Tunisko a Egypt, kde je přechod na demokracii pokročilejší, má politická nejistota tendenci negovat hospodářské úspěchy. Tuniská ekonomika zaznamenala loni poprvé od roku 1986 pokles, konkrétně o 1,8%. Nezaměstnanost dosáhla 18%, oproti 13% v roce 2010. Egyptská ekonomika ve stejné době klesla o 0,8% a o práci přišel milion Egypťanů. Vyschl také příliv zahraničních investic do Egypta, jejichž objem se snížil z 6,4 miliard dolarů v roce 2010 na pouhých 500 milionů v roce 2011.

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