革命中的阿拉伯经济

伊斯坦布尔—希腊伊斯兰主义者和军方执政者正在摊牌,这清晰地反映出阿拉伯世界的民主转型会有多困难。显然,不能形成权力共享协议将会延长政治不稳定局面。但由此产生的经济失活对民主规则的巩固同样有害。

阿拉伯新领导人——从伊斯兰主义者到摇身一变的旧体制官员——敏锐地意识到国家需要改善经济前景。他们十分清楚,只有拿出增长、就业和更高生活水平才能维持自己的支持度。这在任何环境下都是一项艰巨的挑战,而在整个中东和北非的经济制度因阿拉伯之春而摇摇欲坠的背景下,要获得这样的成绩尤为艰难。

即使在突尼斯和埃及等民主转型较为领先的国家,政治不确定性仍会有碍于经济成就。2011年,突尼斯经济出现了自1986年以来第一次衰退。去年失业率高达18%,而2010年为13%。与此同时,埃及经济收缩了0.8%,100万埃及人丢掉了工作。埃及外国投资流入也出现了剧减从2010年的64亿美元跌到了2011年的5亿美元。

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