La lucha por el dominio de Oriente Próximo

BERLÍN – Es posible que ya no quede nada de las ilusiones que inspiraba lo que hasta hace poco se llamó la “Primavera Árabe”. El golpe militar en Egipto ha puesto en negro sobre blanco las alternativas simples y deprimentes que depara el futuro del país. Ya no se trata de democracia versus dictadura, sino de revolución (islamista) versus contrarrevolución (militar): o dictadura o dictadura.

Esto vale no solamente para Egipto, sino para casi todo el resto de Oriente Próximo. Y como ambos lados optaron por la lucha armada, el resultado será la guerra civil, independientemente de lo que unos bienintencionados ministros de relaciones exteriores de la Unión Europea decidan en Bruselas. Los islamistas no pueden vencer militarmente y los generales no pueden vencer políticamente, así que está casi garantizado un retorno a las dictaduras, a un grado considerable de violencia y a una serie de desastres humanitarios.

La única opción para ambas partes es obtener dominio y control totales, pero ninguna de las dos tiene ni la más rudimentaria idea de cómo modernizar la economía y la sociedad de sus países. Por eso, gane quien gane, volverán a prevalecer el autoritarismo y el estancamiento económico.

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