La lutte pour le pouvoir au Moyen-Orient

BERLIN – Les dernières illusions sur ce que l'on appelait encore récemment le "printemps arabe" se sont dissipées. Le coup d'Etat de l'armée en Egypte rend clair comme l'eau de roche le triste choix auquel est confronté ce pays : ce n'est plus démocratie ou dictature, mais révolution islamiste ou contre-révolution militaire - autrement dit le choix entre deux dictatures.

C'est vrai non seulement pour l'Egypte, mais pour presque tout le Moyen-Orient. Et comme les deux adversaires ont fait le choix de la lutte armée, il en résultera la guerre civile, malgré tout ce que les ministres bien intentionnés des Affaires étrangères de l'UE peuvent décider à Bruxelles. Les islamistes ne peuvent l'emporter militairement, tandis que les généraux ne peuvent l'emporter politiquement. On peut donc s'attendre au retour à une dictature, à une violence significative et à une série de catastrophes humanitaires.

Les uns comme les autres veulent tout le pouvoir et le contrôle total du pays, alors qu'ils n'ont qu'une compréhension rudimentaire de la manière de moderniser l'économie et la société. C'est pouquoi, quel que soit le vainqueur, ce sera à nouveau le règne de l'autoritarisme et la stagnation économique.

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