De strijd om de macht in het Midden-Oosten

BERLIJN – De laatste illusies over wat tot voor kort de “Arabische Lente” werd genoemd, zijn nu wellicht in rook vervlogen. De militaire coup in Egypte heeft de eenvoudige, deprimerende alternatieven voor de toekomst van het land kristalhelder gemaakt: de vraag is niet langer ‘democratie of dictatuur’, maar ‘(islamistische) revolutie of (militaire) contra-revolutie’, dus ‘dictatuur of dictatuur’.

Dit geldt niet alleen voor Egypte, maar voor vrijwel het hele Midden-Oosten. En omdat beide partijen hebben gekozen voor het gewapende conflict, zal de uitkomst een burgeroorlog zijn, ongeacht wat de goedbedoelende ministers van Buitenlandse Zaken in Brussel beslissen. De islamisten kunnen militair niet zegevieren, en de generaals kunnen politiek niet winnen, wat de terugkeer van de dictatuur, aanzienlijk geweld en een reeks humanitaire rampen nagenoeg zeker maakt.

Voor beide kampen is volledige heerschappij en controle de enige optie, ook al heeft geen van hen ook maar een rudimentair idee van hoe de economie en de samenleving moeten worden gemoderniseerd. Welke partij ook de overhand krijgt, een autoritair bestuur en economische stagnatie zullen opnieuw het resultaat zijn.

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