Die Wiederbelebung der Animal Spirits

NEW HAVEN – Das grundlegende Problem der Wirtschaft in der Welt von heute ist ein atemberaubender Verlust des Vertrauens. Die anhaltenden Schwierigkeiten von Geschäftsbanken, Investmentbanken und Hedgefonds sind auf diesen Vertrauensverlust zurückzuführen, der die Pläne von Firmen und Unternehmern für Firmengründungen und Investitionen ebenso durchkreuzt wie die Konsumpläne der Haushalte.

Unser Instinktverhalten, also die „Animal Spirits,” um eine berühmte Phrase von John Maynard Keynes zu verwenden, wird schwächer. George Akerlof und ich haben gerade ein Buch mit diesem Titel geschrieben, aber wenn Animal Spirits diesen Winter erscheint, könnte der Zustand der Weltwirtschaft noch viel schlechter sein als jetzt.

Überall auf der Welt beginnen Länder umfassende Konjunktur- und Rettungspakete umzusetzen. Doch die wirtschaftlichen Aussichten wollen sich nicht aufhellen. Aus der jüngsten Prognose des Internationalen Währungsfonds geht hervor, dass die entwickelten Ökonomien im Jahr 2009 um 0,3 Prozent schrumpfen werden – die erste derartige Kontraktion seit dem Ende des Zweiten Weltkriegs.

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