唤醒动物精神

纽黑文——商业信心的惊人丧失是当今世界最根本的经济问题。商业银行、投资银行和对冲基金无休无止的烦恼都来自于信心下降,而信心下降反过来不仅威胁到公司和创业者的企业创办和投资计划,而且同样威胁到了家庭消费的增长。

借用一个由约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯提出的名噪一时的说法,我们的“动物精神”正在减弱。乔治·阿克劳夫和我刚刚写完了一本同名书籍,可是到今年冬天 《动物精神》 一书出版的时候,世界经济可能比现在更不景气。

世界各国都开始推行积极的刺激和救市计划。可是经济前景看似仍然低迷。国际货币基金组织最新的预测显示2009年世界先进经济体将收缩0.3%——这是二战结束后第一次如此规模的收缩。

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