Arrêter la Russie révisionniste

MADRID – Pour certains pays, la défaite militaire ou politique est si intolérable, si humiliante, qu’ils feront tout ce qu’il faut pour renverser ce qu’ils considèrent un ordre international inique. L’Égypte avait ce genre de prétention révisionniste, car elle était résolue à effacer sa défaite de 1967 face à Israël par la récupération de la péninsule du Sinaï. Un but ultimement atteint, mais uniquement après que le président Anwar Sadat a bien voulu adhérer à une stratégie de paix en acceptant de prendre le chemin de Jérusalem. L’exemple le plus sinistre demeure toutefois celui de l’Allemagne des années trente, qui systématiquement mettait en pièce l’ordre européen issu de la Première Guerre mondiale.

Les exemples historiques abondent pour nous laisser entendre qu’on peut faire rentrer dans les rangs une puissance révisionniste de deux façons. On peut la contrer en faisant preuve d’autant de ferveur qu’elle, comme celle qui a permis aux forces monarchistes d’Europe de vaincre Napoléon en 1815 et celle des Alliés de gagner la Seconde Guerre mondiale contre l’Allemagne nazie. Ou bien elle peut atteindre d’elle-même les limites de sa puissance militaire et économique, comme dans le cas de l’Union soviétique à l’époque de sa désintégration.

Rendu à ce point, le pays a le choix. Il peut, comme l’a fait l’Allemagne, choisir de réintégrer l’ordre international par des mesures de réconciliation. Ou il peut prendre le chemin de la Russie du président Vladimir Poutine et concocter une stratégie revancharde – dans ce cas-ci, pour remplacer l’ordre qui s’est installé après la débâcle de l’Union soviétique dans la guerre froide.

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