Comments 0 Add to Bookmarks chinese Chinese Arabic Czech English French German Russian Spanish Facebook Twitter Whatsapp 重返深渊 May 14, 2010 Nouriel Roubini 纽约——目前，对金融危机的发生有这么一种解释，即塔利布所谓的“黑天鹅”现象——意外的偶发事件改变了历史的进程。但在我看来，正如近期本人关于金融危机的新作《危机经济学》一书指出的，研究了包括最近的危机在内，历史上曾经发生过的数十起危机后——我得出的结论是，金融危机是可以预测的“白天鹅”事件，正如目前我们正经历着是全球金融危机的第二个阶段，也是在我意料之中的。危机之所以不可避免在于，宏观经济，金融和政策风险不断累积：资产泡沫，风险过度和杠杆过大，信贷膨胀，货币供应过量，缺乏对金融系统的有效监管，贪婪，银行等金融机构的高风险性投资等。 To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address. Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access. Email required Receive our Sunday newsletter Log in Featured What’s Been Stopping the Left? Apr 10, 2018 Dani Rodrik Political Machismo Apr 10, 2018 Ian Buruma Will China Really Supplant US Economic Hegemony? Apr 2, 2018 Kenneth Rogoff Should Tech Companies Be More Tightly Regulated? Mar 30, 2018 Simon Johnson Liberal World Order, R.I.P. Mar 21, 2018 Richard N. Haass LinkedIn Google+ Bookmark Email Print 0 Facebook Twitter Whatsapp Show More Show More Contact Us http://prosyn.org/nRPJhfl/zh;
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纽约——
目前，对金融危机的发生有这么一种解释，即塔利布所谓的“黑天鹅”现象——意外的偶发事件改变了历史的进程。但在我看来，正如近期本人关于金融危机的新作《危机经济学》一书指出的，研究了包括最近的危机在内，历史上曾经发生过的数十起危机后——我得出的结论是，金融危机是可以预测的“白天鹅”事件，正如目前我们正经历着是全球金融危机的第二个阶段，也是在我意料之中的。
危机之所以不可避免在于，宏观经济，金融和政策风险不断累积：资产泡沫，风险过度和杠杆过大，信贷膨胀，货币供应过量，缺乏对金融系统的有效监管，贪婪，银行等金融机构的高风险性投资等。
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