重返深渊

纽约——

目前,对金融危机的发生有这么一种解释,即塔利布所谓的“黑天鹅”现象——意外的偶发事件改变了历史的进程。但在我看来,正如近期本人关于金融危机的新作《危机经济学》一书指出的,研究了包括最近的危机在内,历史上曾经发生过的数十起危机后——我得出的结论是,金融危机是可以预测的“白天鹅”事件,正如目前我们正经历着是全球金融危机的第二个阶段,也是在我意料之中的。

危机之所以不可避免在于,宏观经济,金融和政策风险不断累积:资产泡沫,风险过度和杠杆过大,信贷膨胀,货币供应过量,缺乏对金融系统的有效监管,贪婪,银行等金融机构的高风险性投资等。

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