Christine Lagarde and Janet Yellen Yin Bogu/ZumaPress

反思通胀目标

苏黎世—过去二十年中,通胀目标已成为货币政策框架的主要内容。它事实上(尽管未必直接)被各大主要央行所采用,包括美联储、欧洲央行和瑞士国民银行。但让世界至今仍未完全从中恢复的2008年全球经融危机给这一方针带来了重重疑云。

国际清算银行早就指出,纯粹的通胀目标与金融稳定不相容。它没有考虑金融周期,因此导致过度扩张和不对称的货币政策。此外,支持通胀目标的主要观点——这样做降低了20世纪90年代初以来的通货膨胀——也是值得质疑的。反通胀(disinflation)始于20世纪80年代初——远早于通胀目标——原因是时任美联储主席保罗·沃尔克(Paul Volcker)的一系列措施。而从20世纪90年代以来,全球化——特别是中国融入全球经济——也许才是全球通胀压力下降的主要原因。

通胀目标并没有引起20世纪90年代以来出现反通胀现象的更加晚近的指标是越来越多的央行让经济再通胀(reflate)的努力以失败告终。如果央行无法增加通货膨胀,呢么它们有可能从未有过降低通胀的能力。

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