美国:主演归来

维也纳—和往常一样,新年伊始,各种统计数字和趋势预测在全世界蜂拥而出。比如,有人预期2016年中国将取代美国成为世界最大经济体。而到2040年,印度人口将达到16亿,超过中国,后者十年前人口开始停止增长。

也许最令人吃惊的预测是美国将在2020年变为能源出口国,并将在15年后能源自给,这是因为美国拥有充足的廉价页岩气供应以及从北达科他州到墨西哥湾各处发现大量石油储量。尽管环保团体表示反对,但这些储量比欧洲储量更容易开发,因为它们多坐落在人口稀疏地区。

于是,在可预见的未来,美国的能源价格将远低于欧洲和中国。事实上,页岩气开采在经济上极为有利可图,以至于美国向欧洲出口的天然气成本将比俄罗斯能源巨头Gazprom的当前价格低三成。

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