Robustes Brasilien

SÃO PAULO – Vor weniger als zehn Jahren geriet die brasilianische Wirtschaft beim leisesten Anzeichen einer Instabilität auf den internationalen Finanzmärkten ins Wanken. Im Gegensatz dazu scheint das Land heute gegen die internationalen Marktturbulenzen immun zu sein – das glauben jedenfalls die offiziellen Vertreter Brasiliens. 

„Die Subprime-Krise ist noch nicht an den Stränden der Copacabana angekommen”, verkündete kürzlich Finanzminister Guido Mantega. „Wir befreien uns gerade von Ungleichgewichten und senken schrittweise unsere Abhängigkeit vom Devisenzustrom – das ist entscheidend.“ Tatsächlich hebt die Regierung Brasiliens die zunehmende Eigenständigkeit hervor, nachdem Bemühungen zur Senkung der Staatsausgaben die Abhängigkeit von externen Kapitalflüssen reduzieren.

Ob Brasilien den Auswirkungen einer Rezession in den USA entkommen kann, hängt allerdings vom Ausmaß der Krise ab. Das offizielle Brasilien hat gute Gründe, damit zu prahlen, dass die größte Ökonomie Lateinamerikas stärker ist als je zuvor: Makroökonomische Indikatoren sind stabiler, Solvenzkennzahlen haben sich verbessert und eine Kombination aus Exporten, Investitionen und Binnennachfrage haben die wirtschaftlichen Aktivität angekurbelt.

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