Pedro Molina

Un nuevo paradigma de políticas para hacer frente al cambio climático

BERLÍN – Hablemos en serio: es probable que fracasen las negociaciones que se están llevando a cabo en las Naciones Unidas sobre el cambio climático. Sin duda, como ocurrió con el encuentro que hace poco se realizó en Bonn, las expectativas para la conferencia de noviembre en Varsovia son tan bajas que casi no hay margen para el fracaso. Pero, dado que los negociadores están prometiendo llegar al acuerdo global que no lograron en Copenhague en 2009, es casi seguro que la cumbre de diciembre de 2015 en París será otra debacle.

Para la Unión Europea, principal autoridad en materias de políticas internacionales para enfrentar el cambio climático, el resultado de la cumbre de Copenhague fue particularmente decepcionante. Tras años de negociaciones y numerosos informes científicos de evaluación, había un alto nivel de expectativas entre las delegaciones de llegar a un tratado climático de gran alcance. Resultaron ser ilusorias.

Esta vez no será diferente. Si bien en 2015 se podría llegar a un acuerdo, lo más probable es que no abarque a todos los grandes emisores y definitivamente no será lo bastante ambicioso como para lograr el objetivo general de una cooperación internacional que pueda evitar que las temperaturas globales se eleven más de 2° Celsius por sobre los niveles preindustriales.

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