Pedro Molina

Un nouveau paradigme des politiques climatiques

BERLIN – Ne nous leurrons pas : les négociations actuellement en cours aux Nations Unies en matière de changement climatique échoueront probablement. En effet, comme l’a illustré le récent rassemblement de Bonn, les espoirs relatifs à la conférence écologique de Varsovie en novembre prochain sont si faibles qu’il serait difficile d’échouer. Seulement, les acteurs des négociations climatiques ayant promis d’établir l’accord international auquel ils ne sont pas parvenus à aboutir à Copenhague en 2009, le sommet de Paris en décembre 2015 s’annonce d’ores et déjà très certainement comme un nouveau désastre.

Pour l’Union européenne, principale autorité en matière de politiques climatiques internationales, le dénouement du sommet de Copenhague a été particulièrement décevant. Après des années de négociations, et la publication de nombreux rapports scientifiques d’évaluation, les différentes délégations n’avaient jamais eu autant d’espoir d’aboutir à la conclusion d’un traité global relatif au changement climatique. Ces attentes se sont pourtant révélées illusoires.

Rien de semble indiquer que la situation sera cette fois-ci différente. Bien qu’un accord puisse être conclu en 2015, il ne concernera probablement pas l’ensemble des principaux émetteurs de CO2, et ne sera certainement pas suffisamment ambitieux pour permettre de satisfaire à l’objectif primordial de coopération climatique internationale consistant à empêcher que la température planétaire ne s’élève de plus de 2° Celsius au-dessus des niveaux de l’ère préindustrielle.

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