El nuevo orden del crecimiento chino

HONG KONG – Entre 1978 y 2012, el PBI de China creció a una tasa promedio anual de aproximadamente el 10% –pasó de $341 mil millones a $8,3 billones (a precios de 2012). Ese proceso sacó a más de 500 millones de chinos de la pobreza. Esto se debió en gran medida a una estrategia de industrialización y urbanización impulsada por las exportaciones, que abrió nuevas oportunidades en ciudades que se expandían rápidamente, donde el trabajo, el capital, la tecnología y la infraestructura se combinaron para crear capacidades de oferta orientadas a los mercados globales. Según el McKinsey Global Institute, para 2025, 29 de las 75 ciudades más dinámicas del mundo estarán en China.

Pero este modelo basado en la urbanización e impulsado por las exportaciones también creo más desafíos de los que ahora puede ocuparse: burbujas inmobiliarias, embotellamientos de tránsito, contaminación, endeudamiento insostenible de los gobiernos locales, corrupción relacionada con la venta de tierras y malestar social por el desigual acceso a la seguridad social. En consecuencia, un cambio hacia un nuevo modelo de crecimiento basado en el consumo –uno que enfatiza la estabilidad, la inclusión y la sustentabilidad– ocupa el primer puesto en la agenda china. China busca un nuevo «orden de crecimiento» para sus agitadas ciudades en expansión.

El actual modelo de crecimiento económico considera la configuración de factores clave de producción: tierra, trabajo, capital y productividad total de los factores (una medida de eficiencia). Pero este estrecho enfoque centrado en el producto descuida la dimensión humana de la economía –esto es, la forma en que el crecimiento afecta las vidas del ciudadano chino común.

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