Un nouvel ordre de croissance pour la Chine

HONG KONG – Entre 1978 et 2012, le PIB de la Chine a connu un taux de croissance moyenne annuelle d’environ 10% – passant de 341 milliards $ à 8 300 milliards $ (selon les taux de 2012) – et a ainsi permis à 500 millions de Chinois de s’extraire de la pauvreté. Cette évolution s’explique en grande partie par une stratégie d’urbanisation et d’industrialisation poussée par les exportations, qui a permis d’offrir de nouvelles opportunités à des villes en pleine expansion, au sein desquelles la main d’œuvre, le capital, les technologies et l’infrastructure se sont réunis pour forger des capacités de production en direction des marchés internationaux. Selon une étude du McKinsey Global Institute, d’ici 2025, 29 des 75 villes les plus dynamiques au monde se situeront en Chine.

Seulement, ce modèle de croissance, reposant sur l’univers urbain et tiré par les exportations, a également engendré des problématiques auxquelles il n’est désormais plus en mesure de faire face : bulles immobilières, trafic routier paralysé, pollution, dettes publiques locales insurmontables, corruption attachée aux terrains, et mécontentement social lié à l’inégalité d’accès aux prestations de solidarité. Ainsi, l’agenda chinois se réoriente aujourd’hui vers cette priorité consistant à instaurer un nouveau modèle de croissance, basé sur la consommation – un modèle qui mettrait l’accent sur la stabilité, l’inclusion et la durabilité. La Chine est en quête d’un nouvel « ordre de croissance » en faveur de ses villes en perpétuelle expansion.

Le modèle économique de croissance actuel prend en considération la configuration des plus importants facteurs de production – terrains, main d’œuvre, capital, et productivité totale des facteurs (une mesure de l’efficacité). Une approche aussi étroite à l’égard de la production néglige cependant la dimension humaine de l’économie – à savoir la manière dont la croissance affecte la vie des citoyens chinois ordinaires.

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