counting renminbi Woo/He Featurechina/Ropi/ZumaPress

中国挺身而出对抗全球通缩及贬值

香港—2月初,在中国喜迎猴年之际,一则广为流传的对冲基金简讯在金融市场上引起了轩然大波。这封简讯预测中国经济将硬着陆,影子银行体统将崩溃,人民币将贬值。直到中国人民银行行长周小川接受《财新》杂志采访,对中国外汇政策的逻辑作了一番解释,市场才恢复稳定。

但中国维持金融稳定的能力取决于多重互相关联的因素,比如低生产率增长、实际利率下降、颠覆性技术的出现、产能过剩导致的债务积压,以及储蓄过剩。事实上,眼下的人民币汇率之争就反映了“金融工程师”(比如美元对冲基金经理) 和“实体工程师”(中国决策者)之间的对峙。

理论上,外汇市场是零和博弈:买家的损失即卖家的盈利,反之亦然。金融工程师喜欢在这些市场上投机,因为交易成本很低并且允许杠杆裸空,不需要对冲相应的基础资产。但是,汇率也是一种资产价格,具有巨大的经济溢出效应,因为它会影响实际贸易和直接投资的流量。

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