Mantengan firme al renminbi

NEW HAVEN – Las guerras monetarias desatan su furia sobre el mundo y China está en la zona más afectada. El renminbi se apreció bruscamente durante los últimos años, las exportaciones flaquean y el riesgo de deflación aumenta. En estas circunstancias, muchos sugieren que revertir la política cambiaria china para debilitar al renminbi es el curso de acción más lógico, pero eso sería un grave error.

De hecho, mientras China procura implementar reformas estructurales orientadas a garantizar su continuo desarrollo, una depreciación forzosa es lo último que necesita. También sería muy problemático para la economía mundial.

En la superficie, la situación ciertamente parece preocupante, en especial vista a través de la lente cambiaria, que captura las variaciones de los precios chinos frente a los del resto del mundo. Según el banco de pagos internacionales (BPI), el tipo de cambio efectivo real de China –un promedio ponderado por las operaciones comerciales e indexado del valor del renminbi respecto de las monedas de un corte transversal de los socios comerciales chinos– aumentó el 26 % en los últimos cuatro años.

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