Japanese cat ornament: Maneki Neko

Японский синдром приходит в Китай

НЬЮ-ЙОРК – В Китае в настоящее время происходит то, через что Япония прошла одно поколение назад: заметный спад экономического роста после требований США о сокращении импорта. В конце 1980-х ‑ начале 1990-х США критиковали Японию как «недобросовестного продавца» в связи со стремительным ростом экспорта промышленных товаров. США выдвинула жесткие и, судя по всему, вероятные угрозы ограничить импорт Японии и добилась успеха, подтолкнув Японию к девальвации йены, что помогло резко остановить японский рост.

Такая ситуация может повториться, экономический рост в Китае значительно снижается под давлением девальвированной валюты, которого настоятельно требовали США. На рисунке 1 показан фактический (с учетом инфляции) обменный курс йены за период с 1964 года (когда йена стала конвертируемой валютой для расчетов по текущим операциям) по сегодняшний день. Рост индекса является признаком повышения реальной стоимости, это означает, что после корректировок в связи с относительным изменением уровня цен йена стала дороже по отношению к другим валютам.

Рисунок 1. Реальный курс обмена японской йены (2007=100)

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