Japanese cat ornament: Maneki Neko

La sindrome giapponese minaccia la Cina

NEW YORKOggi la Cina sta vivendo quello che il Giappone ha vissuto una generazione fa, vale a dire un forte rallentamento della crescita economica legato alla richiesta degli Stati Uniti di contenere le sue esportazioni. Tra la fine degli anni ’80 e l’inizio degli anni ’90, il Giappone fu etichettato dagli Usa come “commerciante sleale” in virtù del rapido aumento delle sue esportazioni manifatturiere. Gli Stati Uniti minacciarono, in modo apparentemente credibile, di porre un tetto alle importazioni giapponesi e spinsero il Giappone a sopravvalutare lo yen, mossa che contribuì a una brusca frenata della crescita del paese.

Questa situazione potrebbe ripresentarsi di nuovo in Cina, dal momento che la crescita del paese è in netto rallentamento poiché schiacciata dal peso di una valuta sopravvalutata dietro sollecitazione degli Stati Uniti. La Figura 1 mostra il tasso di cambio reale (al netto dell’inflazione) dello yen dal 1964 (quando lo yen divenne convertibile per le transazioni correnti) a oggi. Un incremento dell’indice equivale a un apprezzamento reale, il che significa che lo yen è diventato più costoso in relazione alle altre valute dopo la correzione delle relative variazioni dei prezzi.

Figura 1: Tasso di cambio reale dello yen giapponese (2007=100)

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