Japanese cat ornament: Maneki Neko

Das Japan-Syndrom erreicht China

NEW YORKChina befindet sich derzeit in einer Situation, die Japan vor einer Generation erlebte: nämlich eine deutliche Verlangsamung des Wirtschaftswachstums nach Forderungen der Vereinigten Staaten, die Exporte zu beschränken. Ende der 1980er und Anfang der 1990er Jahre wurde Japan aufgrund seiner stark steigenden Ausfuhren von Industrieerzeugnissen von den USA als „unfairer Handelspartner“ kritisiert. Die Vereinigten Staaten stießen deutliche und offenkundig glaubwürdige Drohungen aus, japanische Importe zu beschränken und es gelang ihnen, Japan zu einer Überbewertung des Yen zu drängen, die wiederum half, das japanische Wachstum zu einem abrupten Ende zu bringen.

Das könnte derzeit wieder passieren, da sich Chinas Wachstum unter der Last einer von den USA herbeigeführten Überbewertung der chinesischen Währung deutlich verlangsamt. In Abbildung 1 ist der reale (inflationsbereinigte) Wechselkurs des Yen von 1964 (dem Zeitpunkt, als der Yen Konvertibilität für Leistungsbilanz-Transaktionen erlangte) bis heute dargestellt. Ein Anstieg des Index bedeutet eine reale Aufwertung, also eine Verteuerung des Yen gegenüber anderen Währungen nach der Korrektur um relative Veränderungen des Preisniveaus.

Abbildung 1: Realer Wechselkurs des japanischen Yen (2007=100)

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