Japanese cat ornament: Maneki Neko

日本综合征来到中国

纽约—如今,中国正在经历一代人之前日本经历过的事:随着美国的需求制约了出口,经济增长显著减速。在20世纪80年代末、90年代初,日本由于制造业出口突飞猛进而被美国批为“不公平的贸易者”。美国发出严厉的、并且显然是可信的威胁要限制日货进口,并成功迫使日本高估日元,日元的高估也成为日本增长戛然而止的一个原因。

这一幕可能正在重现,因为中国的增长在美国促成的人民高估形势下显著放缓。图1显示了1964年(日元经常项目开始可自由兑换时)至今日元的真实(经通胀调整的)汇率。指数上升表示真实升值,意味着日元在经相对物价水平变化修正后比其他货币相对更贵。

图1:日元真实汇率(2007=100)

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