Юань и реальность

ПЕКИН. Курс обмена юаня еще раз стал мишенью для Конгресса Соединенных Штатов. Кажется, нападки на Китай в Америке снова в моде.

Но этот раунд нападок на Китай выглядит более странным, чем предыдущий. Когда Конгресс надавил на Китай по вопросу крупной ревальвации валюты в 2004-2005 году, профицит текущего счета Китая увеличивался ускоренными темпами. В этот раз профицит текущего счета Китая значительно сокращался из-за глобальной рецессии, причиной которой стал лопнувший американский финансовый “пузырь”. Общий ежегодный профицит Китая (исключая Гонконг) сейчас составляет 200 миллиардов долларов США, то есть примерно снизился на одну треть с 2008 года. Если рассматривать ВВП, то получается, что он упал еще больше, потому что в 2008 году ВВП вырос на 8,7%.

В то время привязывание юаня к доллару снизило реальный эффективный валютный курс Китая, потому что доллар терял свою стоимость по сравнению с другими валютами, такими как евро, фунт и йена. Но в настоящее время, когда курс доллара повышается по сравнению с другими основными валютами в последние месяцы, относительно фиксированный курс между долларом и юанем стал причиной усиления валюты Китая в том, что касается ее реального эффективного курса.

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