Žen-min-pi a realita

PEKING – Kongres Spojených států si opět vzal na mušku směnný kurz čínské měny žen-min-pi. Zdá se, že navážet se do Číny se v Americe vrátilo do módy.

Nynější kolo kritiky na adresu Číny ale působí podivněji než to minulé. Když Kongres tlačil Čínu k rozsáhlé měnové revalvaci v letech 2004-2005, čínský přebytek obchodního účtu se rostoucím tempem zvětšoval. Tentokrát se čínský přebytek obchodního účtu významně zmenšuje, v důsledku globální recese způsobené prasknutím americké finanční bubliny. Úhrnný roční přebytek Číny (kromě Hongkongu) teď činí 200 miliard dolarů, takže je oproti roku 2008 o třetinu menší. V poměru k HDP ztratil ještě víc, jelikož HDP v roce 2008 rostl o 8,7%.

Dříve zavěšení žen-min-pi k dolaru Číně snižovalo reálný efektivní kurz, protože dolar ztrácel hodnotu vůči ostatním měnám, například euru, sterlingu a jenu. Tentokrát ale dolar vůči ostatním významným měnám už několik měsíců zhodnocuje, takže relativně pevný kurz mezi dolarem a žen-min-pi způsobuje, že reálný efektivní kurz čínské měny posiluje.

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