Die Wirtschafswissenschaften neu erfinden

NEW HAVEN – Die Tatsache, dass es den Ökonomen weithin nicht gelungen ist, die Finanzkrise vorherzusagen, die 2008 ausgebrochen ist, hat viel mit fehlerhaften Modellen zu tun. Dieses Fehlen zuverlässiger Modelle führte dazu, dass Wirtschaftspolitiker und Zentralbankchefs nicht vor dem gewarnt wurden, was kommen würde.

Wie George Akerlof und ich in unserem neuen Buch Animal Spirits argumentieren, wurde die gegenwärtige Finanzkrise durch Spekulationsblasen auf dem Immobilienmarkt, an der Börse sowie am Energie- und an anderen Rohstoffmärkten ausgelöst. Blasen werden von Rückkopplungsschleifen erzeugt: Steigende spekulative Preise fördern den Optimismus, der zu mehr Käufen führt, wodurch dann die spekulativen Preise weiter steigen – bis der Crash kommt.

Doch wird man das Wort „Blase“ in den meisten ökonomischen Abhandlungen oder Lehrbüchern nicht finden. Ebenso liefert eine Suche in den Arbeitsunterlagen der Zentralbanken und der Fachbereiche für Wirtschaftswissenschaften aus den letzten Jahren wenige Fundstellen, an denen „Blasen“ überhaupt erwähnt werden. Der Gedanke, dass Blasen existieren, ist in weiten Teilen des Wirtschafts- und Finanzgewerbes sogar so sehr in Verruf geraten, dass eine Bezugnahme auf sie in einem Wirtschaftsseminar so ist, als würde man vor einer Gruppe von Astronomen die Astrologie zur Sprache bringen.

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