重写经济学

纽黑文——

为什么经济学家没有能预报出发生在2008年的经济危机呢?我们应该从经济理论模式的错误上找到原因。没有成熟的经济理论模式,在经济危机到来之前,经济领域的决策者和央行行长们就不会得到相应的预警。

正如乔治·阿克尔洛夫和我合著的名为《动物精神》新书中指出的,当前的金融危机是由于在房市,股市,以及包括能源在内的商品交易市场上的投机泡沫而引发的。不断的循环怪圈导致泡沫的产生:持续上涨的价格诱发人们不断看涨的预期心理,这样更加刺激了购买行为,于是价格进一步上涨——一直到市场崩盘。

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