Es necesario revisar la reglamentación

NUEVA YORK – Estamos en medio de la peor crisis financiera desde los años treinta. El aspecto notable de esta crisis es que no fue consecuencia de alguna sacudida externa, como un incremento en los precios del petróleo por la OPEP. El sistema financiero mismo la provocó.

Este hecho –la existencia de un defecto inherente en el sistema—contradice la teoría generalmente aceptada de que los mercados financieros tienden al equilibrio y que las desviaciones ocurren de manera aleatoria o son causadas por algún acontecimiento externo súbito al que los mercados tienen dificultad para adaptarse. El enfoque actual de la reglamentación del mercado se ha basado en esta teoría, pero la gravedad y amplitud de la crisis son pruebas convincentes de que hay un error fundamental.

He desarrollado una teoría alternativa que sostiene que los mercados financieros no reflejan con exactitud las condiciones subyacentes. Dan una imagen siempre parcial o distorsionada de alguna forma u otra. Lo que es más importante, la visión distorsionada de los participantes en el mercado que se expresa en los precios puede, bajo ciertas circunstancias, afectar los llamados fundamentos que se supone que los precios del mercado reflejan.

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