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贸易协定的迷思

发自普林斯顿——随着全球贸易谈判陷入多年停滞,区域性贸易协定——这条长期以来蛰伏沉睡的贸易自由化路径——又迎来了春天。而美国正处于两场足以决定世界贸易未来道路的大型谈判的核心。

泛太平洋伙伴关系协定(Trans-Pacific Partnership)推进相对较快,其中包含除美国之外的11个国家,合共占全球GDP份额的40%,但重点是并未将中国包括在内。而与欧盟合作构建的泛大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系(Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership)则更具野心,试图将占全球贸易总量1/2的两大板块连成一片。

贸易协定早就不是专家和技术官僚的专属领地了,因此不出意外两大动议都随机引发了广泛而热烈的公众讨论。支持者和反对者各自的观点是如此两极分化,以至于很难不被可能产生的后果所完全迷惑。为了认清问题的症结,我们必须认识到这些协定都是被一系列混杂在一起的目标所推动的——如果站在全球的角度来看,有些是良性的,有些则没那么善意。

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