O Global Zero na Zona Zero

MADRID – Desde o seu início, em Dezembro de 2008, o Global Zero - um movimento que preconiza um mundo isento de armas nucleares - tem-se deparado com alguns desafios consideráveis. Um deles tem a ver com a vontade das duas maiores potências nucleares, a Rússia e os Estados Unidos, de passarem de uma situação de redução de armas, conforme acordado no Novo Tratado START, à completa eliminação dos seus arsenais nucleares. Outros desafios prendem-se com a vontade das potências nucleares mais pequenas em pactuar com esta medida e com a determinação da possibilidade de serem colocados em prática sistemas fiáveis de inspecção, verificação e aplicação.

Mas estas questões não constituem o problema de fundo. Embora a Rússia e os EUA detenham cerca de 90% das ogivas nucleares a nível mundial, as suas capacidades nucleares são uma ameaça menor do que o perigo de proliferação. A abordagem do "Global Zero" deve focar-se neste receio de um rápido aumento do número de países com armas nucleares e não no delicado equilíbrio dos arsenais nucleares dos EUA e da Rússia. Com efeito, a abordagem das preocupações de segurança subjacentes que alimentam a concorrência nuclear em zonas de tensão a nível regional é mais importante para a credibilidade do objectivo do "Global Zero" - "um mundo isento de armas nucleares" - do que incentivar um comportamento exemplar por parte das duas maiores potências nucleares.

Afinal, a Coreia do Norte, a Índia, o Paquistão, o Irão e Israel poderão não ficar particularmente impressionados com a redução de uma quantidade demasiado excessiva para um número apenas ligeiramente excessivo de arsenais de armas nucleares nos EUA e na Rússia. Existe uma enorme falta de sincronia entre a melhoria (reconhecidamente qualificada) nas relações bilaterais das duas principais potências nucleares e as condições existentes nas regiões voláteis do mundo.

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