全球零核的零基础

马德里—自2008年12月发布以来,《全球零核》(Global Zero)——没有核武器的世界愿景——便面临着一些可怕的挑战。其一与两个主要核大国——俄罗斯和美国——是否准备好了从旅行它们所签署的新战略核武器削减条约(New START)削减库存承诺迈向完全消除它们的核武库。也有人担心较小的有核国家是否愿意仿效美俄,是否能实施可靠的检查、核实和强制制度。

但这些问题都不是真正的问题。尽管俄罗斯和美国拥有世界核弹头总量的90%,但它们的核能力与核扩散相比算不上大威胁。《全球零核》必须解决的问题并不是制衡美国和俄罗斯的核武库,而是快速增加的有核国家数量。事实上,对于《全球零核》的“无核武的世界”目标的信誉来说,解决刺激敏感地区核竞赛背后的基本安全问题要比鼓励两大主要核大国做出榜样更加重要。

毕竟,朝鲜、印度、巴基斯坦和以色列对美国和俄罗斯将核武器库存从杀伤力严重过剩削减至杀伤力略有过剩不会留下太深刻的印象。两个核大国的(公认)双边关系改善和世界动荡地区环境之间严重缺少同步性。

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