Los cambios de régimen en el mundo árabe

Tras cuatro años de una desastrosa aventura militar en Iraq y sin un resultado claro de la guerra global contra el terrorismo perpetrado por fuerzas de la oscuridad mal definidas, el colapso de la gran estrategia estadounidense ha puesto de manifiesto lo mal concebida que estuvo su receta simplista para el cambio democrático en el mundo árabe.

Lo paradójico es que Estados Unidos podría estar ganando la guerra por la democracia árabe, aunque sea por omisión, pero no puede disfrutar de los resultados sencillamente porque el patrón emergente de la política pluralista islámica no coincide con el tipo de democracia liberal secular de Occidente. El viraje de los movimientos fundamentalistas dominantes del mundo árabe hacia una política democrática es equivalente al repudio del proyecto yihadista y de las estrategias apocalípticas de al-Qaeda. El fracaso del yihadismo está estableciendo las condiciones para una reestructuración potencialmente prometedora de la política islámica, pero Occidente no reconoce los cambios o se muestra hostil hacia ellos.

El surgimiento de los islamistas por toda la región como la única fuerza capaz de aprovechar la oportunidad de unas elecciones libres –el triunfo de Hamas en Palestina y las espectaculares victorias de la Hermandad Musulmana en las elecciones egipcias de 2005 son sólo las más notables-, el ascenso a hegemonía regional del Irán chiíta y la sensación entre los líderes árabes de que la asediada administración Bush se está quedando sin fuerza se han combinado para paralizar el empuje prometedor hacia una reforma política en la región.

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