Le changement de régime dans le monde arabe

Quatre ans après le début d’une aventure militaire désastreuse en Irak, et devant l’échec de la guerre planétaire contre des forces du mal définies, l’effondrement de la grande stratégie de l’Amérique a montré à quel point sa recette simpliste pour le changement démocratique du monde arabe était mal conçue.

Le paradoxe est que l’Amérique pourrait être en train de gagner la guerre pour la démocratie arabe, même par défaut, mais qu’elle ne peut en récolter les fruits, simplement parce que le schéma émergent de la politique pluraliste islamique ne correspond pas à la marque occidentale de démocratie libérale et laïque. Le passage des mouvements fondamentalistes du monde arabe à la démocratie équivaut à la répudiation du projet djihadiste et des stratégies apocalyptiques d’al-Qaida. L’échec du djihadisme prépare une restructuration potentiellement prometteuse de la politique islamique, mais soit l’Occident ne reconnaît pas ces changements, soit il s’y montre hostile.

La montée des islamistes dans la région en tant que puissance capable d’exploiter l’opportunité d’élections libres (la victoire du Hamas en Palestine et les gains spectaculaires de la Fraternité musulmane lors des élections égyptiennes de 2005 en sont les exemples les plus notables), l’ascension de l’hégémonie régionale de l’Iran shiite, et le sentiment des dirigeants arabes que l’administration Bush commence à perdre haleine, se combinent pour mettre un frein au mouvement de réforme politique prometteuse dans la région.

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