Refugees of the Currency War, Unite!

Today’s global currency war resembles real war in two important respects: a face-off over the structural imbalances between two large opponents – China and the United States – has forced uncomfortable smaller allies to take one side or the other, and third parties that may not be directly engaged are suffering collateral damage from both sides of the dispute.

BUENOS AIRES – Today’s global currency war resembles real war in two important respects: a face-off over the structural imbalances between two large opponents – China and the United States – has forced uncomfortable smaller allies to take one side or the other, and third parties that may not be directly engaged are suffering collateral damage from both sides of the dispute.

Latin America’s rapidly growing economies are particularly vulnerable, as they are forced to confront both China’s exchange-rate inflexibility and the impact of dollar devaluation arising from the US Federal Reserve’s expansionary monetary policy.

The mechanics are familiar: dollar liquidity flees to emerging countries in search of higher yields, putting upward pressure on their currencies. Brazil, Chile, and Colombia, among others, are now confronting these powerful forces of currency appreciation. This pressure is compounded in resource-rich Latin American countries by the increase in commodity prices caused by a similar search for yield and by the fall in the dollar’s value.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/VnCIBD4;
  1. China corruption Isaac Lawrence/Getty Images

    The Next Battle in China’s War on Corruption

    • Chinese President Xi Jinping knows well the threat that corruption poses to the authority of the Communist Party of China and the state it controls. 
    • But moving beyond Xi's anti-corruption purge to build robust and lasting anti-graft institutions will not be easy, owing to enduring opportunities for bureaucratic capture.
  2. Italy unemployed demonstration SalvatoreEsposito/Barcroftimages / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

    Putting Europe’s Long-Term Unemployed Back to Work

    Across the European Union, millions of people who are willing and able to work have been unemployed for a year or longer, at great cost to social cohesion and political stability. If the EU is serious about stopping the rise of populism, it will need to do more to ensure that labor markets are working for everyone.

  3. Latin America market Federico Parra/Getty Images

    A Belt and Road for the Americas?

    In a time of global uncertainty, a vision of “made in the Americas” prosperity provides a unifying agenda for the continent. If implemented, the US could reassert its historical leadership among a group of countries that share its fundamental values, as well as an interest in inclusive economic growth and rising living standards.

  4. Startup office Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    How Best to Promote Research and Development

    Clearly, there is something appealing about a start-up-based innovation strategy: it feels democratic, accessible, and so California. But it is definitely not the only way to boost research and development, or even the main way, and it is certainly not the way most major innovations in the US came about during the twentieth century.

  5. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.