Politics

En Allemagne, transformer la crise en succès

May 13, 2016 Kemal Derviş

BERLIN – Selon un sondage publié début mai par ARD DeutschlandTREND, le soutien populaire pour le parti d’extrême-droite Alternative pour l’Allemagne (AfD) se situe maintenant à 15%, en hausse d'environ 5% par rapport à l’année dernière. Cette tendance dangereuse peut-elle être inversée ?

La hausse de l'Afd depuis l'été dernier a été le résultat direct de la forte augmentation du nombre de réfugiés – près d'un million en 2015 – entrés en Allemagne. Après tout, le parti a mis le refus de l’accueil des réfugiés au centre de sa plate-forme, qui comprend également l'antagonisme envers l'Union européenne et un programme social ultra conservateur, auquel une composante religieuse ouvertement sectaire a été ajoutée lors d’un congrès du parti le 3 mai à Stuttgart.

Pourtant, le large centre politique de l'Allemagne continue à tenir bon. Les Chrétiens-Démocrates de centre-droit et leurs alliés ont toujours un soutien d'environ 33% de l'électorat; au centre-gauche, les Sociaux-Démocrates ont un soutien de 20%; et le Parti Vert est soutenu par environ 13%. Même les Démocrates Libres ont retrouvé le chemin du succès après des moments difficiles, et ont maintenant un soutien d'environ 6%.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 7 Comments on this article

Thomas Lloyd May 25, 2017

I agree with Kemal Dervis on most of the points he made, however, long term benefit? Refuge by its nature is a temporary thing so when the war in Syria ends as all wars do eventually the refugees return home either willingly or unwillingly.
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j. von Hettlingen May 16, 2016

Kemal Derviş, a former Turkish minister hopes that Germany will benefit more from the refugees than his country, "turning crisis into success." Despite support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), he still thinks that the "broad political center" will survive next year's general election, allowing the incumbent government to continue to rule with a grand coalition, with - most likely - Angela Merkel remaining in power.
The AfD had won big in regional elections last March - the strongest showing for a right-wing populist party since World War II, given the fact that it didn't exist four years ago. Nevertheless it would be to rash to conclude that the party's victory was a result of a rejection of Merkel's policy. On the contrary, the civil society in Germany has proven to be robust, and a substantial majority of voters across all parties, except the AfD, embraces tolerance.
However it would be irresponsible of Merkel to ignore the concern of many Germans about her open-door policy, which has seen well over 1.1 million migrants enter the country in the past year or more. The author sees two scenarios that - one way or the other - will have an impact on Germany and the rest of the world.
He starts with the "bleak" outlook of a failure to "integrate the refugees socially and economically," leading to "political discontent, " while the refugees "become increasingly frustrated with their plight." They would be under the watchful of nationalists and populists, and anything they do to vent their anger could incite to " violence from both sides." A terrorist attack would only vindicate the popular belief that migrants pose a security threat. This would potentially weaken "the very fabric of German society." Islamophobia would become "fodder for religious extremists in the Middle East," confirming "their narrative of inevitable religious and civilizational conflict."
If Germany could turn the "challenge into another success," by integrating the refugees "quickly," and the country would "resume its path of moderate politics, social solidarity, and economic growth." There is hope that in the long run the refugees "could actually make a strong contribution to German prosperity." But it requires investment in educating and providing for them, which "remains a burden in the short term." For the moment, Germany's economy can still absorb the costs, but a recession could easily change the tide.
Indeed, a "successful integration," is a two-way street, that requires mutual understanding and reciprocity from both sides. The author says, "the refugees will have to accept the rule of German law, even if in some cases it does not make sense to them," saying that they and their host will have to work out how to co-exist peacefully, based on laws and rights. But he seems to emphasise more on the duty of the host rather than the obligation of the guests.
The author also points out that the "large existing community of former immigrants could be helpful in articulating and implementing that delicate balance, imperfect as it may have been at times." Does he realise that the roughly 3 million Turkish immigrants living in Germany who, according to studies by the Berlin Institute for Population and Development, are less effectively integrated on average than other immigrant groups. They are more likely than others to be poorly educated, underpaid and unemployed? No doubt both sides had been fooling themselves for decades, since the 1970s. Neither Germany nor its "guest workers" had anticipated that they would have to put up with each other for more than 10 years. When the Turks remained, both sides didn't make much effort to work policies out for a successful integration.
The author can forget the "need for some burden-sharing by European countries, as well as efforts to achieve a marked slowdown in the refugee flow, while upholding the human rights of those fleeing conflict and death." Unfortunately there is no mood among European leaders to help resolve the refugee crisis, as the EU is grappling with its political future.
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Paul Friesen May 14, 2016

Good article.
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Steve Hurst May 14, 2016

http://uk.businessinsider.com/r-german-government-plans-to-spend-936-billion-euros-on-refugees-by-end-2020-spiegel-2016-5

Yup, 93.6billion, 2016 to 2020

Every assessment provides a bigger figure.
Fair guess the next one is bigger
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Peter Schneider May 13, 2016

A good example for nihilism and extremism is the German political class.
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Steve Hurst May 13, 2016

There will be no happy ending
- M M May 13, 2016
  
  There will be no ending..
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En Allemagne, transformer la crise en succès

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