印度经济增长的十字路口

马尼拉——世界主要经济体增长复苏毫无起色开始影响到亚洲发展中国家的发展。亚洲主要经济体,特别是印度和中国这两大巨头可能要背负沉重的负担。中印两国的外向型行业已明显遭受重创,而另一方面国内消费则停滞不前。2012年上半年印度固定资产投资仅增长2.3%,相比年初的9%明显放缓。

除其他因素外,由于推迟必要改革有损经济竞争力,因此与2012年中即出现明确企稳迹象的中国经济相比,印度经济尚没有明确的复苏证据。尽管近期政府采取了刺激经济复苏的政策,但由于四大关键问题没有解决,因此并未成功应对实现可持续包容性增长的挑战。

首先是服务业升级。印度已拥有庞大的服务部门,而且一直是经济增长的主要来源。鉴于印度人口年轻化并保持持续增长,服务业需要为每年加入劳动力大军的数百万人创造更多的就业机会。

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