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Réforme ou rupture de la zone euro

NEW-YORK – Dire que la zone euro ne va pas bien depuis la crise de 2008 est un euphémisme. Les performances économiques des pays qui en font partie sont inférieures à celles des autres pays de l'UE qui n'en font pas partie, et elles sont très inférieures à celles des USA qui ont été l'épicentre de la crise.

Les pays de la zone euro qui s'en tirent le moins bien sont soit en dépression soit en pleine récession ; ils se trouvent dans une situation pire sous de nombreux aspects (notamment la Grèce) que les pays touchés par la Grande dépression des années 1930. Même ceux qui s'en tirent le mieux, comme l'Allemagne, ne sont pas en si bonne situation. Leur modèle de croissance est basé en partie sur le "chacun pour soi" dans lequel le succès s'obtient au détriment de ses "partenaires".

On peut avancer quatre d'explications à cette situation. L'Allemagne accuse les victimes en pointant du doigt les prodigalités de la Grèce, la dette et les déficits des autres pays. Mais ce faisant, elle met la charrette avant les bœufs : avant la crise de l'euro, l'Espagne et l'Irlande connaissait un excédent budgétaire et leur taux dette/PIB était faible. C'est donc la crise qui est à l'origine des déficits et de l'endettement - non le contraire.

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