Reflexiones sobre la revolución de Egipto

NUEVA YORK – Las revoluciones ocurren por un motivo. En el caso de Egipto, hay varios motivos: más de treinta años de gobierno de un solo hombre, el propósito de Hosni Mubarak de transmitir la presidencia a su hijo, corrupción, clientelismo y despotismo generalizados y una reforma económica que no benefició a los egipcios, pero que, aun así, contrastó profundamente con la inexistencia casi completa de cambio político.

El resultado neto fue el de que muchos egipcios se sintieron no sólo marginados, sino también humillados. La de la humillación es una motivación poderosa. Egipto estaba maduro para la revolución; el cambio espectacular habría ocurrido en algún momento de los próximos años, aun sin la chispa de Túnez o la existencia de medios de comunicación social.

De hecho, los medios de comunicación social son un factor importante, pero se ha exagerado su papel. En modo alguno es la primera tecnología perturbadora que ha aparecido: la imprenta, el telégrafo, el teléfono, la radio, la televisión y los casetes representaron, todos ellos, amenazas para el orden existente en su momento. Y, como esas tecnologías anteriores, los medios de comunicación social no son decisivos: los gobiernos pueden reprimirlos, además de emplearlos para motivar a sus partidarios.

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