Réflexions sur la révolution en Égypte

NEW YORK – Les révolutions adviennent pour une raison. Dans le cas de l’Égypte, il y a plusieurs raisons : plus de 30 ans de la loi d’un seul homme ; le projet de Hosni Moubarak de transmettre la présidence à son fils ; la corruption, le clientélisme et le népotisme généralisés ; et une réforme économique qui n’a pas rejailli sur la plupart des Égyptiens, mais qui néanmoins contraste grandement avec l’absence presque totale de changement politique.

Le résultat final est que de nombreux Égyptiens se sont sentis non seulement exclus, mais aussi humiliés. L’humiliation est une puissante force de motivation. L’Égypte était mûre pour une révolution ; un profond changement aurait fini par arriver à un moment ou à un autre dans les années à venir, même sans l’étincelle tunisienne ou les médias sociaux.

En effet, les médias sociaux sont un facteur significatif, mais leur rôle a été exagéré. Ce n’est certainement pas la première technologie perturbatrice à avoir existé : l’imprimerie, le télégraphe, le téléphone, la radio, la télévision et les cassettes ont tous constitué des défis pour l’ordre existant de leur époque. Et tout comme ces précédentes technologies, les médias sociaux ne sont pas décisifs : ils peuvent être réprimés par les gouvernements aussi bien qu’utilisés par ces derniers pour motiver leurs partisans.  

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