Úvahy o revoluci v Egyptě

NEW YORK – K revolucím dochází z určitého důvodu. V případě Egypta je důvodů hned několik: více než 30 let vlády jediného člověka, plány Husního Mubaraka předat prezidentskou funkci synovi, rozsáhlá korupce, klientelismus a protekcionářství nebo hospodářská reforma, která nepřinesla prospěch většině Egypťanů, ale i tak ostře kontrastovala s téměř absolutní absencí politické změny.

Výsledkem bylo, že mnozí Egypťané neměli pouze pocit odcizení, ale i ponížení. A ponížení je silný motivátor. Egypt byl na revoluci zralý; k dramatické změně by někdy během příštích několika let došlo i bez jiskry z Tuniska nebo existence sociálních médií.

Sociální média jsou jistě významným faktorem, avšak jejich role se zveličuje. Jen stěží jde o první rozvratnou technologii, která se objevila: také tiskařský lis, telegraf, telefon, rozhlas, televize a kazety představovaly hozenou rukavici zavedenému řádu své doby. A podobně jako předchozí technologie nejsou ani sociální média rozhodující: vlády je mohou potlačit nebo využít k tomu, aby motivovaly své stoupence.

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