Der nächste Sozialvertrag

PARIS – Hartnäckige Arbeitslosigkeit, Rentenbedingungen und Missverhältnisse zwischen vorhandenen und gefragten Fähigkeiten sind heute weltweit zum Kernthema der Haushaltspolitik geworden, und es werden hitzige Debatten darüber geführt. Die Industriestaaten stehen vor einem schwierigen „Alterungsproblem“, aber auch die meisten Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländer befinden sich mitten in einem demografischen Übergang, der innerhalb von nur zwei oder drei Jahrzehnten zu einer ähnlichen Altersstruktur wie in den Industrieländern führen wird – also zu einer umgekehrten Pyramide. In China wird dies sogar noch viel früher geschehen.

Der Arbeitsmarkt ist von mehreren Problemen betroffen. In Europa, den Vereinigten Staaten und Japan bleibt nach der Finanzkrise, die im Jahr 2008 begann, die schwache Nachfrage weiterhin ein Schlüsselfaktor. Aber auch langfristige Strukturprobleme spielen eine Rolle.

Am wichtigsten ist die Tatsache, dass die Globalisierung zu einer ständigen Verschiebung von Wettbewerbsvorteilen führt. Da Arbeitsplatzverluste in alten Wirtschaftsbereichen durch neue Aktivitäten nicht notwendigerweise kompensiert werden, schafft dies schwierige Anpassungsprobleme. Die meisten neuen Arbeitsplätze erfordern andere Fähigkeiten, was bedeutet, dass Arbeitskräfte, die ihre Jobs in sterbenden Industriezweigen verlieren, wenig Hoffnung haben, neue Arbeit zu finden.

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