العقد الاجتماعي القادم

باريس- ان ما يجري في جميع ارجاء العالم هذه الايام هو ان البطالة المستمرة وعدم توافق المهارات وأطر التقاعد قد اصبحت حيوية بالنسبة للسياسة المالية وللجدل السياسي الحاد المرتبط بذلك. ان الدول المقدمة تواجة مشكلة تقدم شعوبها في العمر ولكن معظم الاقتصادات الناشئة هي ايضا في خضم تحول ديمغرافي سوف ينتج عنه تركيبه عمرية تشبه تلك الموجودة في الاقتصادات المتقدمة- أي هرم مقلوب- خلال عقدين او ثلاثة عقود وبالنسبة للصين فإن ذلك سوف يحصل في وقت اقرب كثيرا.

ان المشاكل المتعددة تؤثر على التوظيف . ان الطلب الضعيف في مرحلة ما بعد الازمة الاقتصادية العالمية والتي بدأت في سنة 2008 ما يزال عاملا جوهريا في اوروبا والولايات المتحدة الامريكية واليابان لكن القضايا الهيكلية طويلة الامد تؤثر سلبا على اسواق العمل ايضا.

ان اهم عامل هو ان العولمة تؤدي الى التحول المستمر للميزة المقارنة مما يؤدي الى خلق مشاكل تعديلية حيث ان الوظائف التي تمت اضافتها ضمن نشاطات جديدة لا تعوض بالضرورة عن خسارة وظائف في نشاطات قديمة وعلى اي حال فإن معظم الوظائف الجديدة تتطلب مهارات مختلفة مما يوحي بإن العمال الذين يخسرون وظائفهم في صناعات في طور الاحتضار لديهم أمل ضعيف بإن يعثروا على وظيفة أخرى.

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