Despite the dire predictions that have accompanied the decline of global governance, less international cooperation does not necessarily mean disaster. In fact, national governments can prioritize domestic prosperity and social cohesion over multilateralism without harming the global economy.
explains how countries can help the global economy by pursuing their own economic-policy agendas.
Although Russia's war in Ukraine has galvanized Polish society and elevated the country's status internationally, it is also obscuring some deeply troubling domestic political developments. Whether liberal democracy will prevail over reactionary authoritarianism in Poland is now an open question.
about recent domestic and geopolitical developments that will shape the country's future.
伦敦—从去年春天开始,我就清楚地认识到,由于西方国家政府用大量财政、货币政策应对疫情,且有效疫苗很可能即将问世,所以在疫情导致的经济衰退之后,将迎来大规模的经济快速复苏。证明紧急批准使用的新疫苗科学性的证据越来越多(尤其是今年年初),经济强劲复苏的可能性也在不断增加。
正如我之前所提到的,所有最可靠的高频周期性指标都显示,经济正在触底反弹。首先开始的是中国,然后是美国、英国,紧接着欧洲大陆大部分国家的经济也开始反弹。最新韩国月度贸易数据(本月初公布)显示,经济大规模同比增长40%——为至少近十年来最强劲的增长,这进一步强化了经济反弹的趋势。虽然2020年4月的疲软数据比年度数据更显眼,但可以确信全球贸易正在强劲复苏。
尽管美国本月报道的高频指标更令人失望——4月份的薪资数据和采购经理人调查都远远低于预期——许多卖方分析师仍在上调他们对2021年GDP的预测值。但接下来会是什么样呢?
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