先求复苏,再求改革

伦敦——始于2007年的金融危机在2年时间里让世界经济收缩了6%,让失业人数翻了一倍。危机最有可能的原因是银行的掠夺式放贷,因此人民自然感到十分愤怒,要求银行家下台、减少银行高管薪酬——这一情绪甚至激发了当前风靡全球的“占领华尔街”运动。

但是,银行不仅是问题的一部分,也是解决方案的关键组成部分。造成危机的机构必须出力解决危机,办法就是重新开始贷款。在全球需求不振的背景下,当务之急毫无疑问是复苏,但也不能将在政治上不讨好的改革的目标束之高阁

改革的共同基础是我们需要重新监管金融服务业。在危机之前,专家们信誓旦旦地宣称,对于“有效”的金融市场,大可安心让它们自己监管自己。2006年,IMF宣布“信贷风险通过银行分散给各式各样的投资者……这让银行业乃至整个金融体系更加稳定……”可谓金融业强盗时代精神的写照。结果,“商业银行似乎……在冲击面前不堪一击。”

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