Una recuperación interrumpida

NUEVA YORK –Desde que a mediados de 2009 hubo una recuperación respecto del desplome del período 2008-2009 –y, en particular, a raíz de la revelación de los problemas en gran escala de deuda pública en Grecia, Irlanda y otros países de Europa–, la mayoría de los gobiernos del G-7 han invertido sus anteriores posiciones de lucha contra la recesión. Con la importante excepción de los Estados Unidos, los dirigentes del G-7 han estado apremiando desde mediados de 2010 en pro de una urgente consolidación fiscal, con lo que han contrarrestado en realidad sus anteriores medidas pro recuperación, e instando a la adopción de medidas de austeridad para equilibrar sus presupuestos, pese a la debilidad, irregularidad e incertidumbre de la recuperación económica.

Es probable que la consolidación fiscal basada en la austeridad fracase, porque la forma mejor de lograr unos presupuestos públicos sostenibles es mediante un fuerte crecimiento económico. De hecho, la lógica de la consolidación fiscal requiere que las economías que han tenido una fuerte recuperación vayan eliminando progresivamente sus medidas pro recuperación, mientras que las que no lo hayan conseguido sigan aplicándolas.

El abandono casi total de las medidas pro recuperación en la mayor parte de las economías desarrolladas presupone que un mayor crecimiento económico en Asia, exceptuado el Japón, puede mejorar la trayectoria actual de la economía mundial. Sin embargo, no es probable que incluso la fortaleza de los mercados en ascenso de Asia sea suficiente para lograr una fuerte recuperación mundial. De hecho, las probables desaceleraciones en las economías del G-7 pondrán en peligro el crecimiento también en los mercados en ascenso. Pese a las advertencias del Fondo Monetario Internacional, las Naciones Unidas y otros, no se ha tenido en cuenta esa posibilidad.

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