La reprise économique menacée !

NEW-YORK – Après la fin de la dégringolade financière courant 2009 et dans le sillage de la crise de la dette publique massive de la Grèce, de l'Irlande et d'autres pays européens, la plupart des pays du G7 ont abandonné leur politique anti-recessionniste. A l'exception notable des USA, depuis le milieu de l'année 2010 les dirigeants du G7 veulent donner la priorité à la consolidation budgétaire, revenant sur leurs mesures précédentes de relance et appelant à l'austérité afin d'équilibrer leurs budgets - malgré la faiblesse et le caractère incertain et chaotique de la reprise économique.

Une consolidation budgétaire basée sur l'austérité va sans doute échouer, car il est plus facile d'assainir le budget à long terme dans le cadre d'une croissance élevée. La logique de la consolidation budgétaire exige que les pays qui sont sortis de la crise abandonnent les mesures de relance, et que les autres les maintiennent.

L'abandon de ces mesures par la plupart des pays développés repose sur l'idée que la croissance économique de l'Asie (hormis le Japon) va tirer l'économie mondiale hors de l'ornière dans laquelle elle se trouve. Néanmoins, il est probable que même si la croissance des marchés émergents asiatiques se poursuit, elle ne suffira pas à assurer une reprise vigoureuse de l'économie mondiale. Un nouveau ralentissement probable dans les pays du G7 menacera la croissance des marchés émergents. Ce risque reste ignoré, malgré les avertissements du FMI, de l'ONU et encore d'autres organisations.

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