Un seguro contra la recesión

NEW HAVEN – El economista jefe del Fondo Monetario Internacional, Olivier Blanchard, y varios economistas del FMI han propuesto en un documento reciente que los gobiernos ofrezcan lo que llaman un “seguro contra la recesión”. Las empresas o las personas o ambos comprarían pólizas de seguros, pagarían una prima periódica por ellas y recibirían una indemnización, si alguna variable de la economía, como, por ejemplo, el crecimiento del PIB, descendiera por debajo de un nivel determinado. Sostienen que semejante seguro ayudaría a las empresas y a las personas a afrontar la “extraordinaria incertidumbre” de la situación económica actual.

El seguro contra la recesión podría contribuir, en efecto, a aliviar la crisis económica al reducir la incertidumbre. Al fin y al cabo, el problema real que actualmente afrontamos es el de una parálisis: la incertidumbre ha mantenido en suspenso muchas decisiones de gasto por parte de las empresas (sobre una producción mayor) y por parte de los consumidores (sobre los artículos que las empresas producen). La reducción de la incertidumbre podría aumentar los programas de estímulo fiscal o incluso ser superior a ellos, pues abordaría la causa primordial de la falta de disposición a gastar.

Además, el seguro contra la recesión podría no imponer –en contraste con la política fiscal– costos al Estado, pues, si estimula la confianza, se previene el riesgo contra el que se estará asegurado. La capacidad gubernamental para ofrecer semejante seguro en una escala suficiente para que no resulte oneroso es una razón para mostrarse a favor de un plan público y no de aseguradores privados.

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