Pojištění proti recesi

NEW HAVEN – Hlavní ekonom Mezinárodního měnového fondu Olivier Blanchard spolu s několika ekonomy MMF v nedávném pojednání navrhl, aby vlády nabídly nástroj, který autoři označili za „pojištění proti recesi“. Firmy i jednotlivci by si mohli sjednat pojistku, platit za ni pravidelné pojistné a za to získat odškodnění v případě, že některý ekonomický ukazatel, například růst HDP, klesne pod určitou úroveň. Takové pojištění by podle nich pomohlo firmám i jednotlivcům vyrovnat se s „extrémní nejistotou“ současného ekonomického prostředí.

Pojištění proti recesi by opravdu mohlo přispět ke zmírnění hospodářské krize tím, že by snížilo nejistotu. Skutečným problémem, jemuž momentálně čelíme, je koneckonců paralýza: nejistota pozastavila řadu rozhodnutí o výdajích, a to jak ze strany firem (v oblasti zvyšování výkonnosti), tak i spotřebitelů (v oblasti zboží, které firmy vyrábějí). Snížení nejistoty by mohlo fiskální stimulační programy rozšířit nebo je dokonce předčit, poněvadž by řešilo základní příčinu neochoty k utrácení.

Navíc by pojištění proti recesi nemuselo na rozdíl od fiskální politiky zatížit vládu dodatečnými náklady, poněvadž pokud stimuluje důvěru, pak předchází riziku, proti němuž se pojištění sjednává. Schopnost vlády nabídnout takové pojištění v natolik širokém měřítku, aby neznamenalo žádné náklady, je jedním z důvodů, proč dát veřejnému programu přednost před soukromými pojistiteli.

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