衰退保险

    纽黑文--国际货币基金组织首席经济学家布朗夏和该组织的其他几位经济学家最近在一片论文中建议政府应该提供“衰退保险”。公司和个人可以购买保险,定期支付保费并且在某些经济指标、例如GDP增长低于一定水平的时候获得保险利益。他们认为,这样的保险会帮助公司和个人应付当前经济环境下的“极度不确定性”。

    衰退保险确实可能通过减少不确定性来缓解经济危机。毕竟,我们目前面临的实际问题就是经济瘫痪。不确定性使得公司(更高的产量) 和消费者 (公司生产的产品) 都推迟了开支决定。减少不确定性或许可以增大财政刺激规划,甚至更胜一筹,因为这会解决不愿开支的根本原因。

    而且,相对于财政政策而言,衰退保险不会对政府造成开销。这是因为,如果它能够刺激信心,那么,所要保险的风险就不会发生。政府有能力大规模地提供这一保险,足以使得其代价低微。如此,人们就有理由采用公共计划而非私营保险公司。

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