التأمين ضد الركود

نيو هافين ـ في بحث حديث اقترح أوليفيه بلانشار ، كبير خبراء الاقتصاد لدى صندوق النقد الدولي، وعدد كبير من خبراء الاقتصاد لدى الصندوق أن الحكومات لابد وأن تقدم ما أطلقوا عليه "التأمين ضد الركود". بموجب هذا الاقتراح تشترى الشركات و/أو الأفراد وثائق تأمين، ويدفع المشترون أقساط تأمين عادية، ثم يحصلون على فوائد التأمين في حالة هبوط بعض معايير قياس الاقتصاد، مثل نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي، تحت مستوى معين. وهم يزعمون أن هذا التأمين من شأنه أن يساعد الشركات والأفراد في التعامل مع البيئة الاقتصادية الحالية التي تتسم بعدم اليقين الشديد.

إن التأمين ضد الركود قد يساعد حقاً في تخفيف الأزمة الاقتصادية عن طريق الحد من حالة عدم اليقين. إذ أن المشكلة الحقيقية التي نواجهها على أية حال هي مشكل شلل: فقد أدت حالة عدم اليقين إلى تعليق العديد من قرارات الإنفاق ـ من جانب المؤسسات التجارية (فيما يتصل بزيادة الإنتاج) ومن جانب المستهلكين (في شراء المواد التي تنتجها المؤسسات التجارية). إن الحد من عدم اليقين قد يعزز من قدرة برامج التحفيز المالي، بل وربما يتفوق عليها، وذلك لأنه يتعامل مع السبب الأساسي وراء العزوف عن الإنفاق.

فضلاً عن ذلك فإن التأمين ضد الركود قد لا يفرض أي تكاليف على الحكومة، على النقيض من السياسة المالية، وذلك لأنه يحفز الثقة، وبهذا ينجح في منع المجازفة التي يستهدفها التأمين. والحقيقة أن قدرة الحكومة على تقديم مثل هذا التأمين على نطاق كافٍ لجعله بلا تكاليف من بين الأسباب التي تجعلنا نفضل الخطط الحكومية على التأمين الخاص.

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